Investing in fiber cable: Four broadband opportunities

Fiber networks were once regarded as a high-risk asset class. Yet as fiber technology has proved its worth over the past decade, so these assets have grown to become some of the most popular among private equity and institutional investors seeking the stable, long-term cash flows that infrastructure can offer. In 2021, 94 deals were made for fiber assets, approximately 80 percent of which (75 deals) were for fiber-to-the-x (FTTX) networks—the term used to describe a range of network architectures that primarily connect households to broadband services.1FTTX refers to the various ways of deploying fiber to consumers, in which X can be replaced with H for home, P for premise, N for node, B for basement or building, and C for curb. Thirty-six of those deals disclosed the amount paid, which totaled $33 billion. That compares with 84 deals the previous year, with about $30 billion paid for 29 of them (Exhibit 1).

Deals have become increasingly expensive due to their popularity, however. Between 2018 and 2021, earnings multiples averaged 16.8, compared with 19.7 in 2021.2Fiber transaction multiples data, 2018–22, Dgtl Infra, accessed September 30, 2022; and Preqin, accessed October 4, 2022. Multiples at these levels can make the business case hard to prove in certain markets, where subscriptions would have to exceed those witnessed to date. When it comes to greenfield rollouts, for example, McKinsey analysis suggests that in some markets, 80 percent of all households would be required to subscribe to the provider’s network to achieve an internal rate of return above 10 percent over 25 years.

Higher interest rates and hence increased cost of capital, along with the fact that many of the fiber assets that are most attractive to investors have already been sold, raise still additional considerations for would-be investors, making it reasonable to ask whether the fiber popularity tide could be about to turn. In the first nine months of 2022, deal activity was down slightly (46 deals compared with 49 in the first nine months of 2021), while the overall value of those deals dropped by as much as 21 percent (Exhibit 2). Yet average multiples crept higher still, reaching 22.5 in the period.

These numbers are highly influenced by the mix of deals. Earnings multiples have typically been in the range of 25 to 33 for wholesale fiber companies such as Open Fiber Italy, Orange Concessions France, and Uniti Australia, but lower for smaller, regional companies that have retail arms, such as TalkTalk in the United Kingdom and Vocus in New Zealand. Notwithstanding, our own research and experience suggest there remains scope for many more value-creating deals.

To begin with, there is strong underlying growth in the sector. Data traffic is expected to expand by around 20 percent annually in the next five years,3Ericsson mobility report, Ericsson, June 2022. and fiber is arguably the only fixed-broadband technology currently capable of delivering the speed and capacity expected by governments, businesses, and consumers.4Fiber currently offers speeds of up to 10 gigabits per second (Gbps), which is faster than any older fixed technologies (for example, DSL and cable) and newer mobile and satellite ones. Docsis 3.1 and 5G fixed wireless access have speeds of 1 Gbps and LEO satellite has 5–25 megabits per second.

Fiber companies also offer steady EBITDA margins—typically above 40 to 50 percent for those providing broadband to consumers, and as high as 70 percent for those that offer wholesale services. But perhaps the biggest consideration is that millions of households still do not have a fiber connection. That represents a huge capital deployment opportunity.

Fiber investment opportunities vary widely depending on the target market (exhibit). The competitive dynamics, regulation, and capital expenditure needs will vary in different local markets in any given country, depending largely on the extent of the fiber built. Markets typically fall into one of three broad categories:

Greenfield markets: Capital spending requirements in these markets are still significant, accounting for $253 billion, or 60 percent of total fiber spending envisaged in coming years to connect households. Emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and South America, where less than 30 percent of households have access to fiber, are considered greenfield, as are a few Western ones, such as Germany, Greece, and Belgium. Here, extensive legacy networks and regulatory frameworks have hindered fiber build-out.

Acceleration markets: These markets have significant fiber coverage. Between 30 and 60 percent of households have access to fiber provided by one or more large players. Investments to the tune of some $131 billion are required to connect the remainder. Several European markets fall into this category, including the United Kingdom and Austria, as does the United States.

Mature markets: More than 60 percent of households have access to fiber in these markets, which means the opportunity for investment lies in connecting households in rural areas and converting those still using hybrid fiber-coaxial networks—an opportunity worth some $39 billion. Separating assets is also an opportunity in mature markets.

Our analysis of 87 countries suggests that while some €900 billion has already been spent laying FTTX networks, at least another €400 billion is needed to connect all households in those same countries.5Based on McKinsey analysis of households already connected to fiber and those without fiber connections in 87 countries. Deployment costs are based on GDP per capita-adjusted costs to build per household, accounting for variable labor costs. Household access to fiber services is, of course, higher in some countries than others and can be broadly divided into three groups—greenfield, acceleration, and mature markets (see sidebar, “Fiber technology is universal; fiber markets are local”). Yet opportunities also lie in FTTX deals that create more value from fiber already laid.

For private infrastructure investors that are considering the sector, some opportunities remain to buy fiber companies outright, but this is not the only way to acquire assets. We’ve examined four different types of deals also worth assessment. Each is attractive for different reasons, is suitable in different markets, depends upon different factors for success, and faces different challenges. We have seen these deal types create value in markets where other types of deals may be prohibitively expensive.

Four deal strategies merit consideration: partnerships with incumbents or new fiber players, the acquisition of challenged fiber players, the consolidation of smaller players, and the acquisition of an incumbent with a view to separating out the fiber assets.

Recent examples of these kinds of deals include Telefónica’s partnerships with investment company CDPQ in Brazil to form FiBrasil. Launched in July 2021, FiBrasil rolled fiber out to 500,000 households in the course of six months and plans to reach another 5.5 million homes and businesses within four years.6“FiBrasil, joint venture between Grupo Telefónica and CDPQ, starts operations in Brazil,” Telefónica, May 23, 2022. In Colombia, also in 2021, Telefónica joined forces with KKR to form ON*NET Fibra, aiming to connect 4.3 million premises in 90 cities over three years. In October 2022, it announced it had already connected two million homes.7“Telefónica Colombia and KKR announce leading company for FTTH deployment,” Telefónica, July 19, 2021. See also “ON*NET Fibra exceeds 2 million homes deployed with fiber optics in Colombia in just 8 months,” Impacto TIC, October 3, 2022.

There have been few deals of this nature to date. However, just as they once featured in the cable and fixed telecom sectors, so they are likely to grow in number as the fiber market matures.

Examples of this type of deal include the acquisition and merger of Germany’s Inexio and Deutsche Glasfaser by private equity firms EQT and Omers.9“EQT and OMERS acquire Deutsche Glasfaser, a leading provider of fiber-optic internet access in Germany,” EQT, February 10, 2020. EQT has also bought and merged multiple fiber companies in the Netherlands,10See, for example, “EQT Infrastructure and Stonepeak to acquire DELTA Fiber,” EQT, October 4, 2021. and FiberCop, owned by TIM, KKR, and Fastweb, has done the same in Italy.11“TIM, KKR Infrastructure and Fastweb: agreement to create FiberCop reached,” TIM, August 31, 2020; “TIM and Open Fiber merger could be agreed by end-October,” TeleGeography, May 30, 2022.

The separation of Telefónica O2 in the Czech Republic into O2 and CETIN is a key example. The combined market capitalization of the separated companies more than doubled in five years.12See “Can telcos create more value by breaking up?” McKinsey, January 22, 2020. Other separations are under way or being considered, such as those by TDC in Denmark,13“TDC completes partial demerger of OpCo, NetCo,” TeleGeography, June 12, 2019. Síminn in Iceland,14“Ardian to acquire Míla, Iceland’s largest telecoms infrastructure company,” Ardian, October 25, 2021. and Telecom Italia.15“TIM: defined perimeter of the potential separation of the fixed network (NETCO) from services (SERVICECO) to overcome the vertically integrated model,” TIM, July 7, 2022.

The success of many of these deal types will depend on getting some basics right. Investors will need a thorough understanding of the local market context, particularly when laying new fiber. In one market, for example, the collapse of a major construction company exacerbated a labor shortage, making it hard to deploy capital quickly. In other markets, consumers and businesses have proven slow to switch to fiber, still not yet embracing the use-cases that fiber enables such as high-quality video or fast-paced gaming, seemingly satisfied with digital subscriber and hybrid fiber-coaxial lines.

No matter the deal type, investors will also need a value creation playbook that goes beyond efficiency in capital deployment if they are to meet their internal rate of return objectives. The ability to combine new assets with those already owned—a customer base or legacy network, for example—or experience separating assets could prove important, as could the ability to lower operational and maintenance costs and drive fiber uptake with commercial excellence.

In addition, all investors should maximize the value of the infrastructure by looking beyond household connections. There are opportunities in fiber-to-the-office or fiber-to-the-business, metro fiber networks, backhaul for mobile, and edge computing, for example.

There are risks too, of course. Companies’ rush to build fiber and regulators’ efforts to promote competition by encouraging multiple fiber networks could result in overcapacity and overlapping networks. And while fiber might be today’s fixed-broadband technology winner, future competition from new technologies cannot be ruled out. In some mature markets in the United States and Europe, where cable penetration is high, Docsis 4.0 is potentially a cheaper way to upgrade the network, even though more upgrades might be required to keep pace with fiber’s expected future performance. LEO satellites have also met with some success, as has 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) in areas with limited fiber. In India, Reliance Jio recently announced plans to reach 100 million households through 5G FWA—deployment at a scale that could significantly change the technology’s economics.16Surajeet Das Gupta, “Reliance Jio eyes 100 mn homes through its 5G fixed wireless access,” Business Standard, August 29, 2022. Still other technologies may yet materialize. But the magnitude of the opportunity in fiber markets is one that merits exploration around the globe, tailoring strategies to local market conditions to capture maximum value.

Gerardo de Geest is a partner in McKinsey’s Amsterdam office, Lorraine Salazar is a senior knowledge expert in the Singapore office, Eivind Tørstad is a partner in the Oslo office, and Martin Wrulich is a senior partner in the Vienna office.

The authors wish to thank Venkat Atluri, Dominic Chao Yu, Shu Chern Lim, Gustav Grundin, Jay Jubas, Heejo Kang, Tomás Lajous, Alexandre Mercier-Dalphond, Andrew Mullin, Beltrán Simó, and Julia Wu for their contributions to this article.

This article was edited by Daniel Eisenberg, an executive editor in the New York office.